Pyramid scheme slows -- top investors fret
Where birth rates have improved, governments and their owners are worried
about economic consequences. The solution, they figure, is to encourage
breeding among the masses. Studies show that economic
incentives don't work over the long term, but those are easily overlooked.
A partial list of countries' baby bounties:
AUSTRALIA
Birth rate up after baby bonus
September 16, 2006
The birthrate is accelerating since the maternity payment became available,
new figures show.
Centrelink data obtained by The Australian shows 268,667 parents claimed the
payment from the federal government for their newborns in 2005-06.
While yet to be confirmed in official birth statistics, this number
represents an increase of more than 10,000 births or 14 per cent on the
previous year, and more than 16,000 on 2003-04.
Demographers suggest the maternity payment - worth $3000 when introduced in
July 2004 but increased to $4000 this July - combined with low interest rates
and low unemployment, may be driving the baby boom.
Australia's fertility rate, which reached 1.8 babies per woman last year, is
up from 1.72 in 2003 and is well above rates of 1.2 to 1.4 babies in many
other developed nations.
The Centrelink data shows 235,299 claims for the bonus - comprising 194,342
couples and 40,957 single parents - in 2004-05.
The number of claims jumped by 33,368 in 2005-06 to 268,667, perhaps
reflecting the fact some parents failed to claim the bonus in its first
year.
The figures dispel suggestions the lucrative payment has encouraged teenagers
to have children, with only 186 extra claims by teenagers between 2004-05 and
2005-06.
Overall, 4,800 teenagers claimed the bonus in 2005-06.
However, older women are increasingly giving birth.
The number of claims by parents over the age of 40 increased from 9906 to
15,873.
Similarly, the number of claims by parents aged 35-39 increased from 44,783
in 2004-05 to 55,350 in 2005-06.
© 2006 AAP
ESTONIA and
others
In Estonia, paying women to have babies pays off
Friday, October 20, 2006
By Marcus Walker, The Wall Street Journal
TALLINN, Estonia -- Pia Kurro sat cross-legged on her bed in a drab,
Soviet-era maternity ward that smelled of detergent and old linoleum and
breast-fed her two-day-old daughter, Syria, who owes her existence to state
subsidies.
In return for having the child, Ms. Kurro will receive the equivalent of
$1,560 a month from her government for over a year, a lot of money in a
country where the average monthly salary is $650.
"I would not have had a baby without the support," said the 39-year-old
business consultant.
Ms. Kurro embodies an increasingly urgent question: Can government policies
aimed at raising a nation's birthrate actually work? The answer is vital to
the future of the global economy. Like most developed countries around the
world, Estonia has a critical shortfall of children that, if not reversed,
will lead to a sharply aging and shrinking population. That will undermine
economic growth and public finances as a dwindling work force struggles to
support a growing pool of retirees who are living longer.
A handful of developed countries, including the Nordic nations and France,
have stable populations thanks to a long tradition of financial support for
families. But for other countries in Europe and Asia that have already seen
steep falls in birthrates, demographers have doubted there was much that
could be done. Governments agreed, making little serious attempt to boost
their birthrates. Estonia stands out because it has made a dramatic shift,
from laissez-faire to aggressive activism, in an attempt to alter its future.
And as other nations slowly start to address the risk of declining
birthrates, the effort there is being closely watched around the world.
Estonia's wake-up call came in 2001, when the United Nations' annual
world-population report showed that Estonia was one of the fastest-shrinking
nations on earth, at risk of losing nearly half its 1.4 million people by
mid-century. Estonia's fertility rate -- the average number of children a
woman bears -- had collapsed to 1.3 in the late 1990s, down from 2.2 under
communism only a decade earlier.
In an attempt to stop that downward spiral, Estonia took a bold step: In 2004
it began paying women to have babies. Working women who take time off after
giving birth get their entire monthly income for up to 15 months, up to a
ceiling of $1,560. Non-wage-earners get $200 a month. The welfare perk --
known locally as the "mother's salary" -- was a sharp about-face for the
radically free-market government.
"Step by step, (the declining birthrate) became a danger to the survival of
the nation, so we had to do something," says Paul-Eerik Rummo, minister for
population affairs and a member of the Reform Party in Estonia's ruling
coalition.
Now, two years into the program, the government is seeing some of the first
tentative results. Since the adoption of the new benefits, Estonia's
fertility rate has improved to 1.5. That's still below the 2.1 children
needed to stop the population from shrinking (one child to replace each
parent, plus some room to allow for child mortality). And it will take years
to see the full impact of the mother's salary. But the apparent early success
has inspired the government to look at other ways of getting people to have
more children -- everything from subsidies for nannies to linking pension
payments to the number of children one has.
Many countries once loath to meddle in matters of fertility are looking at
their numbers and concluding that they must take similar steps. "Governments
may not achieve their aim, but the competing risk of doing nothing is too
great for many countries -- their future young labor supplies are going to be
decimated," says Peter McDonald, professor of demography at the Australian
National University in Canberra.
The fertility rate in the 30 countries of the Organization for Economic
Cooperation and Development, the club of the world's leading industrialized
democracies, was only 1.6 in 2005, down from 2.4 in 1970. Mexico, at 2.4, is
the highest, with South Korea the lowest at 1.1. Demographers say the decline
is due to fundamental changes in society. They include: greater economic
opportunities for women; advances in birth control that have made
reproduction a matter of choice rather than accident; and the spread of ideas
about individual freedom and happiness that are hard to reconcile with caring
for a large family.
Some European countries are experimenting with monthly cash compensation to
women who leave work to have babies, including Lithuania, Austria and
Slovenia. Starting next year, Germany and Bulgaria plan to pay new mothers
benefits linked to their previous earnings. Russian President Vladimir Putin,
who bemoaned his country's lack of children in his last state-of-the-nation
speech in May, has also promised more aid to parents.
Elsewhere, Australia introduced in 2004 a one-time bonus per baby, currently
worth about $3,000. The fertility rate is believed to have risen slightly
thanks to a combination of the incentive and a booming economy, but is still
around 1.8. Australia's finance minister has even exhorted parents to "do
your patriotic duty tonight," echoing similar campaigns in the city-state of
Singapore, which is still struggling with a fertility rate that hovers barely
above 1.2. South Korea has introduced several policies this year, including
more financial aid for day care and for fertility treatment.
Payments such as Estonia's are predictably controversial. Some demographers
argue that paying people to have a baby simply makes them have one earlier;
it doesn't necessarily make them have more. That point is tough to prove for
now: Only after the current generation of young women passes menopause will
it be clear whether they had more children in their fertile years than women
of an earlier age group.
But the experience in places such as France and the Nordic countries suggests
that incentives can have an impact. For example, women in Sweden and Norway,
which support families with generous benefits, labor laws and child care,
have close to two children on average. "Where there are consistent
family-oriented policies in place for a long time, people have more
children," says Tomas Sobotka of the Vienna Institute of Demography.
The main exception to the rule is the U.S., where the average woman has two
children, despite only modest public support for families, largely via tax
breaks. Demographers say America's tradition of mass immigration and its
large minority populations make it unusual among developed nations.
Hispanics, in particular, boost national fertility, with more than three
children per woman. The U.S.'s population passed 300 million this week,
according to the Census Bureau's estimate. About 55 percent of America's
population growth is due to legal and illegal immigrants and their children,
according to the Population Reference Bureau in Washington.
[more]
FRANCE
As Europe Grows Grayer, France Devises a Baby Boom
By Molly Moore
Washington Post Foreign Service
Wednesday, October 18, 2006; Page A01
JUMEAUVILLE, France -- When the municipal day-care center ran out of space
because of a local baby boom, the town government gave Maylis Staub and her
husband $200 a month to defray the cost of a "maternal assistant" to care for
their two children.
When Staub delivered twins last December -- her third and fourth children --
the nation not only increased their tax deductions and child allowances, the
government-owned French train system offered 40 percent discounts off tickets
for the parents and the children until they reach their 18th birthdays.
After urging women to have children and bolstering family subsidies, France
has Europe's second-highest fertility rate. Maylis Staub took a year off work
when her twins were born.
"The government favors families a lot," said Staub, 35, a project manager for
a French cellphone company. "They understand that families are the future.
It's great for us."
While falling birthrates threaten to undermine economies and social stability
across much of an aging Europe, French fertility rates are increasing. France
now has the second-highest fertility rate in Europe -- 1.94 children born per
woman, exceeded slightly by Ireland's rate of 1.99. The U.S. fertility rate
is 2.01 children.
In many European countries, park benches are filled with elderly residents.
In France, parks overflow with boisterous children, making it an
international model for countries struggling with the threat of zero
population growth. In recent months, officials from Japan, Thailand and
neighboring Germany have traveled to France to study its reproductive
secrets.
But the propensity of women here to have more babies has little to do with
notions of French romance or the population's formerly strong religious ties
to the Roman Catholic Church.
France heavily subsidizes children and families from pregnancy to young
adulthood with liberal maternity leaves and part-time work laws for women.
The government also covers some child-care costs of toddlers up to 3 years
old and offers free child-care centers from age 3 to kindergarten, in
addition to tax breaks and discounts on transportation, cultural events and
shopping.
This summer, the government -- concerned that French women still were not
producing enough children to guarantee a full replacement generation -- very
publicly urged French women to have even more babies. A new law provides
greater maternity leave benefits, tax credits and other incentives for
families who have a third child. During a year-long leave after the birth of
the third child, mothers will receive $960 a month from the government, twice
the allowance for the second child.
A century ago, France was one of the first European countries to face a
declining population. Since then, almost every elected French government --
regardless of party -- has instituted laws that encourage bigger families and
make it easier for women to keep their jobs while raising children.
"Politicians realized they had to encourage people to have more babies if
they didn't want to live in a country of old people," said France Prioux,
director of research for France's National Institute of Demographic
Studies.
Most of the subsidies and allowances are income-based, giving low-income
families the most help. But higher-income families also receive substantial
benefits so that only a fraction of a working mother's salary goes to
child-care costs.
<...>
Under French law, a woman can opt not to work or to work part time until her
child is 3 years old -- and her full-time job will be guaranteed when she
returns. "In other countries, maternity leaves are seen as a handicap for
mothers who want to have a career," Staub said. "It's different in
France."
[more]
France pays to boost birth rate (sorry, no link)
Friday, September 23, 2005
PARIS, France (Reuters) -- France will give more money to families with three
children in an effort to encourage the French to have more babies, Prime
Minister Dominique de Villepin said on Thursday.
A parent who puts his job on hold to raise a third child will receive 750
euros ($915.6) per month for one year, around 50 percent more than the
monthly amount families with two children receive for a three-year period,
Villepin said.
Shortening the time period but increasing the sum aims to help mothers get
back into their job quicker after giving birth, and prevent them from
suffering career disadvantages, government sources have said.
"The birth rate is still insufficient in our country," Villepin said at a
national conference on families.
"If the number of families with three children doubled, the replacement of
generations would be assured," he said, adding the new measure would cost 140
million euros per year.
France, which already has a generous child care system in place, has a birth
rate of 1.9 children per woman -- well above the EU average of around 1.5. In
countries such as Italy, Spain, Germany and Poland, the rate is as low as
1.3, data shows.
Villepin also said France would create 15,000 new creche places, double tax
credits for some child care costs and improve financial conditions for
parents looking after a sick child.
"The measures will allow us to advance in two directions," Villepin said. "To
give the French the possibility to have as many children as they want, and to
support parents in better protecting their children against society's new
threats."
With unemployment at close to 10 percent and high oil prices weighing on
consumers, France's conservative government has come under pressure to do
more for cash-strapped households.
But France is also under pressure from Brussels to cut its public deficit to
below the European Union's limit of three percent of gross domestic
product.
Paris has broken the limit every year since 2002, and has told the European
Commission its deficit would come in at 3 pct of GDP this year.
Copyright 2005 Reuters. All rights reserved.This material may not be
published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
GERMANY
Germans get incentives for having babies
By STEPHEN GRAHAM, Associated Press Writer Jan 3, 2007
BERLIN - When her water broke early on New Year's Eve, Julia Gotschlich was
mainly thinking about the imminent birth of her second child. But she
couldn't help worrying about family finances, too.
She and her husband stood to lose out on more than $13,200 if the baby
arrived before midnight, when Germany's generous new family benefits took
effect — part of a government effort to raise one of the lowest birthrates in
Europe.
Births in Germany dropped 4 percent in 2005 from the previous year, according
to figures from the Federal Statistics Agency, to around 690,000. That's the
lowest since World War II and lagging even 1946, when 922,000 babies were
born even as the country lay in ruins.
A recent government study forecast that Germany's population will drop by as
much as 16 percent by 2050, from the current 82.4 million to as little as 69
million. That could hurt the economy by sapping the work force — and
undermine the state pension system.
Facing such an alarming demographic trend, the German government has shaken
up its financial assistance to parents in a bid to make it easier for working
women to have children.
The new "Elterngeld" — or "parent money" — program allows an adult who stops
work after a child is born to continue to claim two-thirds of their net wage,
up to a maximum $2,375 per month. Low earners can claim 100 percent
compensation for lost wages.
One parent can claim for up to 12 months; if both parents take a turn, they
can claim the benefit for a total of 14 months — a tweak designed to
encourage more fathers to help.
Germany previously paid a flat $400 a month in benefits to needy parents for
up to two years. The change is expected to raise the annual outlay in direct
payments for parents with infants by about $1.2 billion per year to $5
billion.
Other countries have instituted similar incentive programs to boost
birthrates. France and Sweden both pay child subsidies roughly equivalent to
those in Germany — but also have an extensive network of low-cost childcare
centers that take babies to preschool-aged children.
France offers additional help to some families who need in-home care. The
Swedes give either moms or dads 80 percent of their salary for a total of 480
days in a parental leave.
While the French had 12.7 new babies per 1,000 residents in 2004 and the
Swedes 11.2, Germany recorded only 8.5 new births — the lowest rate in Europe
not counting Vatican City.
Britain introduced a so-called "baby bonds" scheme in 2004, giving a $490
voucher to every newborn to start a trust fund, while a new Russian law
entitles families to a bonus of $9,600 following the birth of a second child
and any subsequent children.
Gotschlich's baby, Inka Angelina, held off just long enough to qualify for
the new German law, emerging 63 minutes into 2007. That means mom will be
able to finance a full year off from work as opposed to just eight weeks with
her first child.
"At first, I thought: 'Can't you wait a little longer?'" Gotschlich said at
Berlin's Auguste-Viktoria Hospital.
As midnight approached, "the doctors and midwives were encouraging me that
maybe we would make it into the new year after all, and we did," she said,
smiling at her daughter asleep in a bassinet at her side.
There had been media reports about German women taking magnesium tablets,
which can prevent premature labor, or putting off planned Caesarean births to
qualify for the new bonuses.
Klaus Grunert, a doctor at Auguste-Viktoria Hospital, said some women avoided
things thought to help induce labor — from hot baths and massages to sex. But
he said none asked doctors to delay births, which the doctors would have
refused in any case.
Gotschlich and her husband, a software engineer, decided to have a second
child two years ago — long before Chancellor Angela Merkel's left-right
coalition took power vowing to do more for families. Although Gotschlich said
the family will still earn less than when both she and her husband worked,
the new incentive plan will make life easier.
"We'll have to see what kind of vacation we have this year," she said. "We
can still afford one, though the car and the washing machine had better not
break down."
INDIA
Cash boost for tribal families
By Subir Bhaumik
BBC News, Shillong
Amelia and her husband make a living selling vegetables and fish.
Amelia Sohtun has 17 children and she has recently received a cash reward of
several hundred dollars for mothering them.
So have Dorothia Kharbani and Philomena Sohlangpiaw for producing 15 children
each.
All three are members of the Khasi tribe in India's north-eastern state of
Meghalaya.
National policy in India seeks to limit population growth.
But, the Khasi Hills Autonomous District Council (KHADC) in Meghalaya has
started rewarding Khasi mothers with more than 15 children as part of its
declared mission "to save Khasis from being outnumbered by outsiders".
"We have enough land but if our Khasi people don't grow in numbers, migrants
from Bangladesh or elsewhere in India will occupy that living space,"
explained KHADC chairman HS Shylla.
Some mothers say they are grateful for the payments, but women's rights
activists have been less happy.
The KHADC is an elected autonomous body of the Khasi tribe and the state
government generally avoids interfering with the KHADC in matters of local
customs and traditions.
"We are encouraging our people to grow more. Now the Khasi population is
around one million in Meghalaya, but we want it to double in the next 10
years," Mr Shylla told the BBC.
RUSSIA
Russian lawmakers pass maternity bill in first reading
Nov 17, 2006
MOSCOW, November 17 (RIA Novosti) - A maternity incentive bill on payouts for
women who give birth to more than one child was passed by lawmakers in
Russia's State Duma in its first reading Friday.
The president-sponsored bill, aimed at reversing the current decline in the
nation's birth rate, will provide for one-off payouts to women who give birth
to or adopt a second child after January 1, 2007, and for subsequent
births.
But the payouts, which are currently set at 250,000 rubles (a little under
$9,400), but will be revised annually to adjust for inflation, come with
conditions attached. They could be invested in education, housing, or a
pension saving program, but not until the child turns three, or three years
after his/her adoption.
The second-birth incentive bill is expected to help Russia overcome a severe
demographic crisis. The country's population has been in steady decline since
the launch of market reforms in the early 1990s, and, according to the United
Nations, it may further fall by one-third by the middle of the century, from
today's 142 million.
Ahead of the bill's submission to parliament last month, Deputy Duma Chairman
Oleg Morozov said, citing expert estimates, that if enacted, the new
legislation could triple the birth rate within three years.
In his annual address to the nation in May, President Vladimir Putin said the
population was falling by about 700,000 each year, and pledged financial
incentives to women with larger families.
SCOTLAND
Jan 4, 2007
Pregnant women's 'bill of rights'
TANYA THOMPSON SOCIAL AFFAIRS CORRESPONDENT
* Guide on maternity rights at work to be given to all pregnant women
* 1504 British women lodged cases at tribunals in 2005-6, up 46% in 3
years
* Plans to extend maternity pay to a full year
IN THE KNOW
* Pregnant women are entitled to paid time off for antenatal appointments and
maternity leave.
* Fathers may be able to take up to two weeks' paid paternity leave once the
baby is born.
* Employers must conduct a risk assessment and make arrangements to protect
the woman and her unborn child at work.
* Pregnant women are entitled to up to 52 weeks' maternity leave. (Ministers
have said they plan to extend maternity-pay entitlement from six to nine
months from April 2007, and to a year by the end of this parliament.)
* The woman has the right to request flexible working hours, parental leave
and time off to deal with a family emergency.
“Over the long term, however, policies that promote
childbearing have had little effect (96, 314, 472).”
Eliminating
Targets, Incentives, and Disincentives [for using contraception and/or
breeding] a USAID paper.
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